IKH

Summary

Here’s a summary of what you have learnt so far in this session:

  1. You started this session by exploring the difference between time series and simple regression.
  2. Then you started exploring the popular smoothing techniques used for forecasting and built them using the Air Passenger Traffic Dataset to forecast the future.
    • You started this by first exploring the simple forecasting techniques. They are:
      • Naive method
      • Simple average method
    • After that to evaluate the forecast you understood that we need to learn about the error measures and hence we explored some of the popular error measures. They are:
      • MFE, MAE, MAPE
      • MSE and RMSE
    • Then using these measures you evaluated the forecast of Naive and Simple Average method.
  • After that you explored other simple and popular smoothing technique called Simple Moving Average and also evaluated the forecast.
  • Then you explored some other advanced smoothing techniques and also evaluated their forecast on Air Passenger Traffic data. They are:
    • Simple Exponential Smoothing 
    • Holt’s Exponential Smoothing
    • Holt-Winters’s Exponential Smoothing

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