Here’s a summary of what you have learnt so far in this session:
- You started this session by exploring the difference between time series and simple regression.
- Then you started exploring the popular smoothing techniques used for forecasting and built them using the Air Passenger Traffic Dataset to forecast the future.
- You started this by first exploring the simple forecasting techniques. They are:
- Naive method
- Simple average method
- After that to evaluate the forecast you understood that we need to learn about the error measures and hence we explored some of the popular error measures. They are:
- MFE, MAE, MAPE
- MSE and RMSE
- Then using these measures you evaluated the forecast of Naive and Simple Average method.
- You started this by first exploring the simple forecasting techniques. They are:
- After that you explored other simple and popular smoothing technique called Simple Moving Average and also evaluated the forecast.
- Then you explored some other advanced smoothing techniques and also evaluated their forecast on Air Passenger Traffic data. They are:
- Simple Exponential Smoothing
- Holt’s Exponential Smoothing
- Holt-Winters’s Exponential Smoothing