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Basic Forecast Models

Now that you have a good understanding of time series forecasting, in this segment, you will learn to build simple forecasting models and forecast the future. So are you ready to take the first step in becoming the next Nostradamus?

Let’s quickly recap the forecasting methods you just learnt.

  • Naive method
    • Forecast = Last month’s sales
  • Simple average method
    • Forecast = Average of all past months’ sales

Now that you have a good understanding of naive and simple average methods, in the next video, you will apply that understanding to build these models on top of the air passenger traffic dataset using Python.

That wasn’t very difficult, right? Now let’s move on to the next basic model. In the video below, you will learn to build the simple average model on the air passenger traffic dataset using Python.

Now that you have learnt how to build the simple forecasting models, in the next segment, you will learn about some popular error measures which will help you to evaluate the models.

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